Keith Glantz | The Pick Three - Arguably the Best Bet in Racing

The Pick Three - Arguably the Best Bet in Racing

THE PICK THREE – ARGUABLY THE BEST BET IN RACING

From Keith Glantz and the KG Racing Division

The Number One Reason for playing a Pick 3 is THE VALUE.

Since what follows the races listed directly below more than explains the argument in favor of the Pick Three, I’m not going to spend any time with a lengthy introduction. At random I took the results for April 26 at Churchill Downs as an example…I listed the Race sequence (race 1-3, race 2-4 etc.), what the individual winners paid, what a parlay of the three winners would have paid and what the Pick 3 paid.

Following that data I’ll give you a few abstracts regarding the numbers and how they support the argument.

(CHURCHILL DOWNS)

Races 1-3

Race 1 – Quebec City - $26.60

Race 2 – Becky’s Express - $3.40

Race 3 – Prospector Mattie - $8.00

$2 Parlay would have paid $180.80

$2 Pick Three paid $420.40

Races 2-4

Race 2 - Becky’s Express - $3.40

Race 3 – Prospector Mattie - $8.00

Race 4 – Art World $8.80

$2 Parlay would have paid $59.80

$2 Pick Three paid $131.60

Races 3-5

Race 3 – Prospector Mattie - $8.00

Race 4 – Art World - $8.80

Race 5 – Aquinas - $17.00

$2 Parlay would have paid $299.20

$2 Pick Three paid $526.00

Races 4-6

Race 4 – Art World - $8.80

Race 5 – Aquinas - $17.00

Race 6 – Cassoulet - $21.20

$2 Parlay would have paid $792.80

$2 Pick Three Paid $1,046.20

Races 5-7

Race 5 – Aquinas - $17.00

Race 6 – Cassoulet - $21.20

Race 7 – Flaming Slew $6.80

$2 Parlay would have paid $612.60

$2 Pick Three Paid $1,127.80

Races 6-8

Race 6 – Cassoulet - $21.20

Race 7 – Flaming Slew - $6.80

Race 8 – Whywhy Cat - $7.80

$2 Parlay would have paid $280.80

$2 Pick Three paid $526.80

Races 7-9

Race 7 – Flaming Slew - $6.80

Race 8 – Whywhy Cat - $7.80

Race 9 – Wise River - $15.20

$2 Parlay would have paid $196.00

$2 Pick Three paid $247.80

Races 8-10

Race 8 – Whywhy Cat - $7.80

Race 9 – Wise River - $15.20

Race 10 – Karama - $84.00

$2 Parlay would have paid $2,486.40

$2 Pick Three paid $2.072.40

NOTE – Every Pick Three sequence with the exception of the final one (Races 8-10) paid higher than a Parlay would have. And the Pick Three payoffs were significantly higher…

…and those Numbers become even more pronounced because…

- If you do run a parlay the odds on the second horse go down and the third horse odds go down even more because you are putting your own winnings back into the pool. Therefore the resulting example figure for a projected 3 horse parlay would be even less because there would be more shares to pay out. In other words, the return figure for the first sample (Races 1-3 at Churchill) would be even less because the Parlay return is computed without the $26.60 won on Quebec City “actually” being in the pool, or the additional $$45.20 which came from the Quebec City/Becky’s Express parlay bet into the Prospector Mattie pool.

- Once the Pick Three Pool closes with the “advance bet” on the horses, nothing can change the payoffs. This is significant, because it means the public can’t play the tote board in the second and third legs of the Pick Three. They are not going to get the kind of help that often erodes value from a live horse.

- Another advantage of the Pick Three wager is that you get to make more mistakes than you would if you were running a Parlay. Once you hit the first leg of a projected parlay, you only get one choice in the second leg, and again in the third. In a Pick Three you can Play a Combo Part Wheel. If you hook up 2 horses in leg 1 with 3 horses in leg 2 with 3 horses in leg 3 it doesn’t matter what happens to the extra horse in the first leg or the 2 extra horses in each of the other two legs. And, as to the counter argument that you are investing more money with a combo, it isn’t as black and white as it seems. If you bet $2 in Leg 1 and hit for $8 you are now betting $8 in Leg 2 and if that hits you are betting $32 in Leg 3. That is a total of $42. A 2 x 3 x 3 combo costs $36 for $2. Yes…the parlay is a bet back of profit, but that is an illusion, because as a bettor you are putting X amount of dollars through the window for X return, and that is still real dollars from your bankroll, whether that bankroll is increasing or not. And if the Pick Three pays the kind of differential shown above, the profit more than wipes out the difference in the initial investment.

- These concepts also bring up another advantage to a Pick Three. In a Pick Three you are only “taxed” once…while in running a Parlay, or just rolling over some of your profit, you are eroding your own take by making three “separate” bets that are “each” subject to a takeout.

- The Best way to look at this is to use an average takeout from tracks around the country. Let’s say that the win bet takeout is 16% and the Pick Three Takeout is 20%. The novice might jump to the conclusion that it is costing “more” to play the Pick Three than the win bets. But that is wrong when computed for the purposes of a Parlay. Again, it’s wrong because the three win bets are subject to that 16% “each time” while the Pick Three is only subjected “one time”. Remember…and this is very important. The percentage taken out by the track before it pays back the winning bettor is gone to the betting public forever. So in actuality, what starts as X amount of dollars in the first of a three race/three taxed wagering run is actually X-Y as the betting unfolds. In the Pick Three, what started as X amount of dollars remains as X amount until the Pick three is finished. Here is how to look at it…

- Straight Win Bet and Pick Three Each Start with $100,000 in the Pool and each is subjected to their respective takeouts.

- Win Bet – Race 1 - $100,000 x .84 (1.00 - .16 take) = $84,000 back to the bettor.

Race 2 - $84,000 x .84 = $70,560 back to the bettor

Race 3 - $70,560 X .84 = $59,270

Remember – You had to win 3 Races to get your share of the $59,270

Pick 3 – (3 Wins) $100,000 x .80 (1.00 - .20 take) = $80,000 back to the bettor.

Just as the bettor above did…you won three races to cash your ticket…but you

share in an $80,000 pool at the end of the Pick Three sequence as opposed to $59,270.

Pick Three’s Are Better Than Exactas and Trifectas as well.

When you bet a Trifecta for example, you are working with the pool of horses that exist in just one race.

Let’s again look at the true cost of betting three Trifectas vs betting a Pick Three in the same three races…and let’s use one of the sequences above.

Let’s use Races 6-8 from Churchill Downs.

We’ve already established that we got back $526.80 for the Pick 3. Let’s assume that we bet 3 horses in each of the 3 races for our Part Wheel. The cost of that bet would have been $54 (twenty-seven x $2). That means that we got a return on investment of $19.51 per $2 wager, or a profit of 1,800%.

Let’s assume that we hit the “highest” paying Trifecta in that same sequence, which was $628.40 in Race 7. And let’s even grant that we only invested a minimum of $48 in each of the 3 Trifecta races (the cost of a 4 horse $2 box). That means we invested $144, or 72 tickets to get back $628.40. That works out to a return on investment of $8.73 per $2 wager, which is less than the return on the Pick Three.

Even if you used the sequence of races 5-7 wherein the Race 5 Trifecta returned $1,824.60 compared to the Pick Three Payoff of $1,127.80, the Trifecta return was $23.95 and the Pick Three $41.77 for each $2 invested.

And then there’s that “tax” or “take” thing again. Trifectas always come at a higher premium than a Pick Three. The legitimate number is 25% vs only 20%.

25% of $48.00 = $12.00 x 3 (the number of Trifectas) = $36.00

20% of $54 = $10.80

That’s $25.20 more betting money.

But that’s just the money part…Pick Three’s are a bettor handicapping proposition because you get to make more mistakes…

Let’s go back to that 3 x 3 x 3 Pick Three Combo. As long as one of the horses wins, it doesn’t matter what happens to the other two. This fact also makes for an ease of mind when handicapping.

In a Trifecta, even with 4 horses, you are still restricted not only by your failure, but also by your success.

If you use 4 horses in a box you can have any of them finish in any of the three spots. But let’s use a 10 horse field as an example.

You start with 4 chances from 10 horses to hit 3 spots or 40%.

Once one of your horses is on the board there are only 3 chances from 9 horses for two spots, or 33% opportunity to be successful.

If you are fortunate enough that your second horse hits the board you have reduced your situation to 2 chances from 8 horses for 1 spot, or a 25% opportunity. Bluntly put, success reduces your chances of success.

With the Pick Three you handicap as many horse as you think have a legitimate chance of winning the race and don’t worry where the others fall. It is a much better exercise mentally as well.

That in as brief an explanation I can make, is why I contend that the PICK THREE IS A GREAT BET.