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"Derby" Bill Watson brings years of handicapping experience, plus scores of national connections who are always tipping him to hot horses around the country to the table.

No one has picked more Derby or Triple Crown race winners than I have.

    Remember that for the Preakness (which I usually nail right on) and the Belmont (which I won last year with the gallant filly Rags to Riches.)

    But, the story of last weekend was how I came up with Big Brown. And, if you remember, in this space last February when the early book betting opened, I told you that War Pass and Pyro were getting all the money, but that the real bet was BIG BROWN.

    War Pass is gone. Pyro was the up the track. And the Derby horse I picked 3 months ago was alone at the wire. That's called "knowing what you are talking about."
    Yes, he only paid $6.80. That's not quite the Derby score I expect after picking so many winning longshots over the years. But, I don't set the price. I can only pick the winners. And there was no reason not to crush that horse. That's how confident I was.

    In fact, by my numbers Big Brown was at least 5 lengths better than the rest of the field. And, he won exactly as my figs predicted.

            PREAKNESS SHORT FIELD, BUT...
    I predict a short field for the Preakness. None of the Derby horses want any part of Big Brown. He just toyed with them. His move around the turn was so powerful that he left them standing still.

    The effects of "synthetic" tracks were evident in the Derby too. The first five finishers were all coming off races on "dirt" tracks.

Big Brown came out of Gulfstream Park.
The ill-fated filly Eight Belles came from Oaklawn.
Dennis of Cork last ran in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne.
Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct
Recapture the Glory won the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne

    None of the colts that had such great form on Polytrack or Cushion track came close. In fact, the last two horses, Monba (20th) and Adriano (19th) had won their preps on Polytrack and showed absolutely no form at all when transferred to the dirt.

    So the synthetic courses will hurt the Preakness because phony horses with phony earnings got into the Derby and colts that might be true class contenders did not because they couldn’t handle synthetic surfaces.

    Well, that seems to be the trend for the future. Again, I can't set the field or the prices. I can only pick the winners.

    Now, I'm going to do just that for the Preakness and the rest of the Triple Crown. Last year, I was the king of these races.